Primer:
-Team performance is irrelevant. This is an individual award and a player should not be punished for being in a worse situation than a fellow competitor. Making the playoffs gives no extra value.
-I am not evaluating solely on WAR. I will look at every statistic that I feel is significant. I have listed these below with an explanation as to why.
-I use K% and BB% instead of the 9 inning rates because it better captures the true talent level of a pitcher. Using K/9 or BB/9 gives an advantage to pitchers that allow more base runners, which is obviously a bad thing, since they face more batters.
-I put more weight on FIP than ERA. FIP only incorporates things the pitcher can control: Home runs, strikeouts and walks, whereas ERA is highly dependent on fielding. Note that WAR uses FIP in its formula and RA-9 WAR uses ERA.
-“FIP-” compares a player’s FIP to a league average of 100. Each point below 100 represents 1% above average. So a pitcher with a 90 FIP- was 10% better than league average. The important factor of this statistic is that it is adjusted for ballpark and league.
My Ballot:
1. Corey Kluber
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Chris Sale
4. Jon Lester
5. David Price
-Team performance is irrelevant. This is an individual award and a player should not be punished for being in a worse situation than a fellow competitor. Making the playoffs gives no extra value.
-I am not evaluating solely on WAR. I will look at every statistic that I feel is significant. I have listed these below with an explanation as to why.
-I use K% and BB% instead of the 9 inning rates because it better captures the true talent level of a pitcher. Using K/9 or BB/9 gives an advantage to pitchers that allow more base runners, which is obviously a bad thing, since they face more batters.
-I put more weight on FIP than ERA. FIP only incorporates things the pitcher can control: Home runs, strikeouts and walks, whereas ERA is highly dependent on fielding. Note that WAR uses FIP in its formula and RA-9 WAR uses ERA.
-“FIP-” compares a player’s FIP to a league average of 100. Each point below 100 represents 1% above average. So a pitcher with a 90 FIP- was 10% better than league average. The important factor of this statistic is that it is adjusted for ballpark and league.
My Ballot:
1. Corey Kluber
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Chris Sale
4. Jon Lester
5. David Price
Yes, Corey Kluber had a better season than King Felix. Although the numbers look almost dead even, it wasn’t too difficult of a decision for me once I really broke it down. My guess is Felix will get the majority of the support from conventional voters for a couple of reasons, the main one being his ERA is .30 points lower than Kluber’s. But if you read my primer, you will know that FIP is the almighty statistic and here’s why:
Felix was playing in front of a significantly better defense this year. As a team, the Mariners rated as 5.8 runs above average, tied for 12th best in the MLB. Behind Kluber, the Indians were a whopping 64.8 runs below average, good for 29th in the majors. This is clearly a huge advantage for Felix, and to see how much this benefited him lets look at the OPS and BABIP numbers.
Felix held hitters to an unusually low 0.258 batting average on balls in play. While his defense certainly played a role in that, the majority of it was luck. Here are his BABIPs against the last 4 seasons:
2011: 0.307
2012: 0.308
2013: 0.313
2014: 0.258
This season is a clear outlier, and this can almost exclusively be attributed to luck. League average BABIP is usually anywhere between 0.290-0.310, and any extremes outside these ranges are usually a result of great luck. Felix’s fortune on balls in play is also the driving force behind his ludicrous 0.546 OPS against. However, it is possible to sustain a BABIP far below league average by consistently allowing weak contact and a lot of pop ups. But when you consider that Felix’s average over the previous 3 years, a pretty hefty sample size, was 50 points higher than this season, you simply cannot find any explanation other than some seriously good luck.
Not only did Felix benefit from having better luck and better defenders behind him, he received some help from behind the plate as well. Mariner’s catcher Mike Zunino rated as the MLB’s second best pitch framer this year, saving 22.3 Runs Above Average. Kluber’s catcher, Yan Gomes, saved 8.0 Runs Above Average, good for 16th best. Yet despite Felix having a clear edge in all these factors, the two still put up nearly identical numbers.
And this is why we use FIP. It is able to filter out all the extraneous factors affecting pitching performance and more accurately look at a pitcher’s true performance. Remove luck and defense from the equation and Kluber undoubtedly had a better season than Felix, posting a 2.35 FIP compared to Felix’s 2.56. Over 236 innings, this equates to Kluber being worth one more win. And if you think one win is insignificant, check how close the Mariners were to making the playoffs.
The third spot on my ballot was another two horse race between Sale and Lester. This came down to quality vs. quantity, with Sale putting up absurd numbers, but in 45 less innings than Lester. Ultimately, Sale’s dominance was too much to ignore, especially when you consider he was pitching in front of the MLB’s 28th best defense, while Lester pitched in front of two top 8 defenses.
After these two, there was solid drop off into the next tier of candidates. Price gets the nod over the likes of Max Scherzer and Garrett Richards due to the pure volume of his performance. Both runner-ups had outstanding seasons, but Price was just as good, and he did it in more than 3 complete games worth of innings.
Felix was playing in front of a significantly better defense this year. As a team, the Mariners rated as 5.8 runs above average, tied for 12th best in the MLB. Behind Kluber, the Indians were a whopping 64.8 runs below average, good for 29th in the majors. This is clearly a huge advantage for Felix, and to see how much this benefited him lets look at the OPS and BABIP numbers.
Felix held hitters to an unusually low 0.258 batting average on balls in play. While his defense certainly played a role in that, the majority of it was luck. Here are his BABIPs against the last 4 seasons:
2011: 0.307
2012: 0.308
2013: 0.313
2014: 0.258
This season is a clear outlier, and this can almost exclusively be attributed to luck. League average BABIP is usually anywhere between 0.290-0.310, and any extremes outside these ranges are usually a result of great luck. Felix’s fortune on balls in play is also the driving force behind his ludicrous 0.546 OPS against. However, it is possible to sustain a BABIP far below league average by consistently allowing weak contact and a lot of pop ups. But when you consider that Felix’s average over the previous 3 years, a pretty hefty sample size, was 50 points higher than this season, you simply cannot find any explanation other than some seriously good luck.
Not only did Felix benefit from having better luck and better defenders behind him, he received some help from behind the plate as well. Mariner’s catcher Mike Zunino rated as the MLB’s second best pitch framer this year, saving 22.3 Runs Above Average. Kluber’s catcher, Yan Gomes, saved 8.0 Runs Above Average, good for 16th best. Yet despite Felix having a clear edge in all these factors, the two still put up nearly identical numbers.
And this is why we use FIP. It is able to filter out all the extraneous factors affecting pitching performance and more accurately look at a pitcher’s true performance. Remove luck and defense from the equation and Kluber undoubtedly had a better season than Felix, posting a 2.35 FIP compared to Felix’s 2.56. Over 236 innings, this equates to Kluber being worth one more win. And if you think one win is insignificant, check how close the Mariners were to making the playoffs.
The third spot on my ballot was another two horse race between Sale and Lester. This came down to quality vs. quantity, with Sale putting up absurd numbers, but in 45 less innings than Lester. Ultimately, Sale’s dominance was too much to ignore, especially when you consider he was pitching in front of the MLB’s 28th best defense, while Lester pitched in front of two top 8 defenses.
After these two, there was solid drop off into the next tier of candidates. Price gets the nod over the likes of Max Scherzer and Garrett Richards due to the pure volume of his performance. Both runner-ups had outstanding seasons, but Price was just as good, and he did it in more than 3 complete games worth of innings.