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NFC North
Chicago Bears: 10-6
Green Bay Packers: 9-7
Detroit Lions: 6-10
Minnesota Vikings: 5-11
My thinking:
The Bears offense is going to be unstoppable. When you combine Marc Trestman’s system with a health Jay Cutler (knock on wood) and arguably the best skill position unit in the NFL, its not hard to see them averaging 34+ points a game. They have two of the games top 7 receivers in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, plus a top 5 running back in Matt Forte. The only thing holding this team back, aside from health, is their defense. They finished 25th in Defensive DVOA and dead last against the run. Hopefully this unit is improved with the addition of Jared Allen, but I’m still not optimistic it will be good enough to squeeze out 12+ wins from this team.
As seen on Thursday night’s opener against the Seahawks, the Packers have their flaws. Granted, this should be taken with a grain of salt as they played the defending Super Bowl champs in the toughest road environment in professional sports. Their offensive line is shaky to say the least, especially now that Bryan Bulaga will miss extended time with an MCL injury. They’re also shallower at the skill position than they’ve been in years with the loss of Jermichael Finley and James Jones. Additionally, their defensive front seven got dominated in the trenches by Seattle. I don’t like betting against Aaron Rodgers, but there are too many question marks with this team.
I’ll be honest, I have no rational reason for why I think the Lions will go 6-10. I just have a hunch Matt Stafford is due for a 22 interception season and I think the defense will implode.
Minnesota is a nice young team, but they’re playoff hopes are contingent on the development of Teddy Bridgewater. They have nice young pieces on both sides of the ball, and you all should expect an invite to The Official Cordarrelle Patterson Coming Out Party in the mail by week 6.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
Washington PFT: 7-9
New York Giants: 7-9
Dallas Cowboys: 6-10
My Thinking:
I expect more or less of the same from the Eagles this year. There will be some “Chip Kelly is a genius” 45-10 blowouts, and some “Chip Kelly can’t win in the NFL” games, like when they lose 17-10 at home to the Rams in week 6.
The Washington Professional Football Team is the wild card here, and it all depends on RG3. Its not unthinkable that they will be one of the better offensive teams in the league with the addition of DeSean Jackson and a step forward from TE Jordan Reed. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if Griffin shits himself every time a defensive lineman rolls around his knees and Kirk Cousins is starting by week 8.
Barring an MVP type season from Eli Manning, the Giants are destined for 7-9. So yeah, I wouldn't get your hopes up Giants fans.
The Dallas Cowboys might have the worst defense of the 2000s. No, seriously. They were 30th in DVOA last year and that was with DeMarcus Ware. I wouldn’t be shocked if Romo threw for 5200 yards and Dez went for 2000 yards and 18 touchdowns since they’re gonna be gunning while playing from behind all year.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8
Carolina Panthers: 7-9
My Thinking:
BOLD PREDICTION ALERT: Coming off a 4-12 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will make the playoffs. They finished 8th in defensive DVOA last year, and with defensive minded Lovie Smith now coaching they will undoubtedly improve. DE Michael Johnson and DB Alterraun Verner are nice additions to a young core that should progress into one of the best units in the NFL. As long as their offense is adequate, they should be a lock for 9 wins. Their new jerseys alone are worth an additional 1-2 wins. QB Josh McCown is a huge question mark but he showed in Chicago that he can be successful if you give him weapons, specifically tall receivers. Well, its a good thing Tampa Bay drafted 6’5 freak Mike Evans and a personal favorite of mine Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. Their receiving corps will be a matchup nightmare, and if McCown can capitalize, watch out for the Bucs.
Lock in the usual for the Saints: 11+ wins, a steady D led by Rob Ryan, and one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They’re a little shallower at receiver this year, losing Darren Sproles and Lance Moore. Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Brandin Cooks should shoulder a heavy load and is set to have the year we all hoped Tavon Austin would have in 2013.
I have no idea what to expect from the Falcons. They’re clearly better than last year’s 4-12, but I don’t think they get back to 13-3 like in 2012. I’m expecting a huge bounce back year from Julio Jones, but other than that there just isn’t a whole lot to be excited about with this team.
Carolina is one of this year’s obvious regression candidates. Their defense should be solid again but this offense could be a nightmare. Cam Newton is battling rib problems, and I’m no doctor, but repeatedly getting tackled by 250+ pound men can’t be good for that. Its a good thing this offense is dependant on Cam making plays with his legs! Seriously, this offense could be atrocious. I’m not a huge believer in 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin, and after him they might as will line me up at wide receiver. Carolina also loses brownie points because for the millionth straight season, fantasy owners said to themselves “Sure I’ll take a flyer on DeAngelo Williams/Jonathon Stewart in the 10th round” only to hate themselves 2 weeks into the season.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 13-3
San Francisco 49ers: 9-7
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9
St. Louis Rams: 7-9
My Thinking:
Normally, I’m always a believer in regression from the previous Super Bowl winners (assuming they don’t add any studs). But the Seahawks are different to me. They have a teamwide hunger that is truly special and the undeniable swagger with Pete Carroll and Richard Sherman setting the tone. There’s no reason to think they can’t be better than last year, as they were among the youngest teams in the NFL and their most important player, President Russell Wilson, should continue to get better. Percy Harvin’s health will be crucial, as he completely changes the dynamic of the offense when he plays.
All the ingredients for a Season From Hell are there for the Niners. Navorro Bowman and Aldon Smith, arguably their two best defenders, will be gone for much of the year. They’re getting older on defense, and there are issues with the offensive line. However, I think Kaepernick has a big year with a healthy Crabtree to throw too, and ultimately this team gets hot at the right time and squeezes into the playoffs.
I really wanted to buy stock in the Cardinals and Rams after their promising 2013 seasons, but I finally snapped back to reality. Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington are done for the year, Andre Ellington may miss some time, and most importantly, Carson Palmer is the quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. Its tough to believe they can get back to 10 wins again. The Rams defensive line alone was almost sexy enough for me to pick them to win 9 games, but I can’t see it without Sam Bradford. Then again, is Shaun Hill really that much worse than Bradford? We can’t be sure. Regardless, the Rams lack the weapons to score on better defenses. It will take something special, like Tavon Austin going crazy with 5 special teams touchdowns or Robert Quinn getting 25 sacks for this team to make a playoff run.
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round:
(3) Bears beat (6) Bucs
(4) Eagles beat (5) Niners
Divisional Round:
(4) Eagles beat (1) Seahawks
(3) Bears beat (2) Saints
NFC Championship:
(3) Bears beat (4) Eagles