The evolution of sabrmetrics and advanced stats has changed the way we evaluate pitchers in the MLB today. Metrics like FIP and WAR have replaced the seemingly archaic ERA and Wins. Using a combination of advanced metrics and tradition rate statistics, I have created a new metric called CUM to determine who the true aces are.
I evaluated a list of 21 pitchers that I considered the best starters in the MLB based on 6 different categories to create a cumulative (CUM) ranking. I used rate (per game) statistics like ERA, Innings Pitched per Start, counting statistic (totals) Wins Above Replacement, and other statistics not generally used in conversation. I used Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which aims to estimate what a pitchers ERA should be based on his strikeout rate, walk rate, and home runs allowed, thus eliminating all variables he cannot control. A pitcher with an ERA much higher than his FIP is likely a victim a bad luck and vice versa. K% was used instead of K/9 as it is a more accurate measure of a pitchers pure talent. K/9 is misleading because it rewards pitchers who allow more baserunners face more batters per inning. Whats more impressive, a pitcher who strikeouts 8 batters in 7 innings while facing 23 batters, or a pitchers who strikes out 9 batters in 7 innings while facing 30 batters? This is why we use the percentages.
Since we all are familiar with the concept of random variation, we know that single season statistics is too small of a sample to be trusted. So I incorporated the data from the last three seasons and averaged them out with the following weights: 2012 (20%), 2013 (30%), and 2014 (50%). I created a weighted average for each of the aforementioned metrics and ranked each pitcher from 1-21. I average the rankings from each category, then ranked the pitchers again based on this average, thus creating my CUM (cumulative ranking metric). The full table can be seen at the end of the post, and all statistics mentioned in the rankings are weighted.
Now, CUM isn’t the final say, as there are some flaws to the stat. It assumes each category has the same weight, which simply isn’t true. Therefore there is some subjectivity incorporated into these rankings. Additionally, since this is a three year sample size, breakout pitchers from this year didn’t make the cut. So we'll see you next year Garrett Richards, Corey Kluber, Matt Harvey, and Jose Fernandez. Without further adieu, here are my rankings of the MLB aces:
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (CUM: 1)
ERA: 1.95 IP/S: 7.1 K%: 28.7 BB%: 5.2
Simply put, Kershaw is the best pitcher of this generation. You have to go back to late 90s/early 2000s Pedro Martinez to find some as dominant as him. He has it all: electric stuff, great command, and the ability to go late into games. He’s only 26 years old, and barring injury (knock on wood) or Tim Lincecum-esque fatigue, he will go down as one of the greatest lefties to ever do it.
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (2)
ERA: 2.50 IP/S: 7.0 K%: 26.6 BB%: 5.0
Right now we are witnessing Peak Felix Hernandez. He’s the only pitcher on the planet who makes you second guess Kershaw when asked who the best pitcher in the game is. His record setting streak of consecutive starts with at least 7 IP and 2 ER or fewer illustrates his blend of dominance and consistency.
3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (5)
ERA: 2.81 IP/S: 6.9 K%: 21.7 BB%: 5.4
Speaking of consistency, Wainwright is as solid as they come. The only reason his CUM rank doesn’t match his Ace rank is due to his lackluster (by his standard) 2012 season, when he was returning from Tommy John. Although he isn’t as flashy as King Felix or Kershaw, he’s as dependable as they come.
4. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (3)
ERA: 2.60 IP/S: 6.8 K%: 27.5 BB%: 5.3
For some reason, Sale seems to never get the credit he deserves. Whether it be because he’s never been in the playoffs, his unorthodox delivery, or wirey frame, this needs to change. He’s the only other person on this list who can combine both command and stuff to the same degree as Kershaw and Felix, which is reflected in his stellar K% and BB%. Unmerited concerns about his fragility can be stopped, as he's averaged almost 7 innings per start.
5. David Price, Detroit Tigers (4)
ERA: 3.12 IP/S: 7.1 K% 24.7 BB%: 4.3
These next 6 pitchers are a toss up really. What separates Price from the pack is his ability to go deep into games, as he led all aces in innings per start. He’s reinvented himself as a Cliff Lee type lefty who pounds the zone. The only difference being Price’s fastball sits at 95 compared to Lee’s 90.
6. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (tie-6)
ERA: 3.18 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 28.4 BB%: 6.9
Aside from his K%, Scherzer’s numbers actually aren’t all too flattering. Due to his high K%, he throws a lot of pitches and doesn’t get past the 7th inning as often as one would life from their ace. He can be prone to the occasional disaster of a start, but at this point I'm just nitpicking. Scherzer was more than deserving of the 2013 Cy Young and is one of the best in the game.
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (tie-6)
ERA: 2.88 IP/S: 6.8 K%: 24.1 BB%: 6.6
Hamels quietly has put up one of the best 5 year runs in the MLB. His change-up is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, and with a world series ring he posses the championship pedigree one likes in an ace. Just kidding, because we all know postseason performance should not be weighed differently than regular season performance, right?
8. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (12)
ERA: 2.43 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 23.1 BB%: 6.7
Cueto’s ERA alone should put him higher than this, but his FIP is nearly a point higher at 3.37. This means he’s been the benefactor of some luck and is probably due for regression at some point. However, he could be the exception to this rule, as his deadly sinker leads to a lot of weak contact which FIP does not consider.
9. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (10)
ERA: 2.91 IP/S: 6.3 K%: 24.0 BB%: 5.6
Not to be overshadowed by that other Dodgers pitcher who is pretty good, Greinke is an ace in his own right. The only knock on him is his inability to go deep into games relative to the guys above him on this list.
10. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (8)
ERA: 3.32 IP/S: 6.7 K%: 22.7 BB%: 3.5
Unlike Greinke, Lee’s absurd walk rate allows him to go deep into ball games. His ERA is inflated thanks to his current season in which he hasn’t been healthy. Prior to this year, Lee has been a model of consistency, as he has never had an ERA higher that 3.22 or WAR lower than 4.8 since 2007.
11. Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (9)
ERA: 3.16 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 30.3 BB%: 9.1
In terms of raw stuff, Darvish might be the best in the game. However, due to his high walk and strikeout rates, he is prone to running his pitch count high. As a result, he’s only eclipsed 200 innings once in his 3 seasons. I’d like my ace to be a little more reliable than that.
12. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (16)
ERA: 3.37 IP/S: 6.1 K%: 28.2 BB%: 6.5
The knocks on Strasburg are similar to that of Darvish. However, Strasburg has better control, and his innings have been limited out of (over)caution rather than necessity. Despite being dead last in ERA of all ace candidates, he finished 8th in FIP, foreshadowing that he is due for better fortune in the future.
13. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (14)
ERA: 3.12 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 23.9 BB%: 6.3
Just 25 years old, Bumgarner has been overshadowed for most of his young career by a combination of a worn down Tim Lincecum, a Matt Cain who always outperformed his FIP, and even a Ryan Vogelsong outlier season. But don’t be fooled, Bumgarner has been the ace of this staff for some time now, and at 25 still has plenty of room to improve.
14. Jordan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals (11)
ERA: 3.09 IP/S: 6.2 K%: 20.5 BB%: 4.3
When compiling my CUM rankings, Zimmerman surprised me most at 11. Why is he so underrated? Perhaps its because he has been overshadowed by Strasburg, who entered the rotation at the same time. Regardless, Zimmerman has some of the most impressive numbers in baseball and is due a lot more recognition than he currently gets.
15. Jon Lester, Oakland Athletics (13)
ERA: 3.34 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 22.4 BB%: 6.6
Put up your hand if you thought Jordan Zimmerman and Madison Bumgarner were better pitchers than Lester before reading this. Well, turns out they are, and by a clear margin. Aside from Lester’s current season, his numbers aren’t all that ace-like, with an ERA of 4.82 as recently as 2 years ago. For all we know, this season could be an outlier, as it is a contract year and nothing in his history hints that 2014 Lester is the real Jon Lester. Let me stop you before counter with narrative of Lester being “clutch” in the playoffs, as I refute arbitrary endpoints and minuscule samples as a valid argument.
16. James Shields, Kansas City Royals (18)
ERA: 3.27 IP/S: 6.7 K%: 20.5 BB%: 5.8
Originally, Shields didn’t make the cut. However, I reexamined his numbers and one thing stood out: his ability to eat innings. His inning totals from the last 3 seasons are 249.1, 227.2, and 228.2, and this year ZiPS projects he will finish with, you guessed it, 228. One big thing I want out of my ace is consistency, and if James Shields isn’t consistent than I don’t know who is.
Just missed the cut:
Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers (15)
ERA: 3.31 IP/S: 6.1 K%: 22.2 BB%: 6.3
Doug Fister, Washington Nationals (17)
ERA: 2.96 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 17.2 BB%: 4.1
Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners (19)
ERA: 2.87 IP/S: 6.0 K%: 20.6 BB%: 4.2
Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds (20)
ERA: 3.12 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 18.8 BB%: 7.0
Jeff Samardzija, Oakland Athletics (21)
ERA: 3.52 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 22.8 BB%: 7.1
I evaluated a list of 21 pitchers that I considered the best starters in the MLB based on 6 different categories to create a cumulative (CUM) ranking. I used rate (per game) statistics like ERA, Innings Pitched per Start, counting statistic (totals) Wins Above Replacement, and other statistics not generally used in conversation. I used Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which aims to estimate what a pitchers ERA should be based on his strikeout rate, walk rate, and home runs allowed, thus eliminating all variables he cannot control. A pitcher with an ERA much higher than his FIP is likely a victim a bad luck and vice versa. K% was used instead of K/9 as it is a more accurate measure of a pitchers pure talent. K/9 is misleading because it rewards pitchers who allow more baserunners face more batters per inning. Whats more impressive, a pitcher who strikeouts 8 batters in 7 innings while facing 23 batters, or a pitchers who strikes out 9 batters in 7 innings while facing 30 batters? This is why we use the percentages.
Since we all are familiar with the concept of random variation, we know that single season statistics is too small of a sample to be trusted. So I incorporated the data from the last three seasons and averaged them out with the following weights: 2012 (20%), 2013 (30%), and 2014 (50%). I created a weighted average for each of the aforementioned metrics and ranked each pitcher from 1-21. I average the rankings from each category, then ranked the pitchers again based on this average, thus creating my CUM (cumulative ranking metric). The full table can be seen at the end of the post, and all statistics mentioned in the rankings are weighted.
Now, CUM isn’t the final say, as there are some flaws to the stat. It assumes each category has the same weight, which simply isn’t true. Therefore there is some subjectivity incorporated into these rankings. Additionally, since this is a three year sample size, breakout pitchers from this year didn’t make the cut. So we'll see you next year Garrett Richards, Corey Kluber, Matt Harvey, and Jose Fernandez. Without further adieu, here are my rankings of the MLB aces:
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (CUM: 1)
ERA: 1.95 IP/S: 7.1 K%: 28.7 BB%: 5.2
Simply put, Kershaw is the best pitcher of this generation. You have to go back to late 90s/early 2000s Pedro Martinez to find some as dominant as him. He has it all: electric stuff, great command, and the ability to go late into games. He’s only 26 years old, and barring injury (knock on wood) or Tim Lincecum-esque fatigue, he will go down as one of the greatest lefties to ever do it.
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (2)
ERA: 2.50 IP/S: 7.0 K%: 26.6 BB%: 5.0
Right now we are witnessing Peak Felix Hernandez. He’s the only pitcher on the planet who makes you second guess Kershaw when asked who the best pitcher in the game is. His record setting streak of consecutive starts with at least 7 IP and 2 ER or fewer illustrates his blend of dominance and consistency.
3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (5)
ERA: 2.81 IP/S: 6.9 K%: 21.7 BB%: 5.4
Speaking of consistency, Wainwright is as solid as they come. The only reason his CUM rank doesn’t match his Ace rank is due to his lackluster (by his standard) 2012 season, when he was returning from Tommy John. Although he isn’t as flashy as King Felix or Kershaw, he’s as dependable as they come.
4. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (3)
ERA: 2.60 IP/S: 6.8 K%: 27.5 BB%: 5.3
For some reason, Sale seems to never get the credit he deserves. Whether it be because he’s never been in the playoffs, his unorthodox delivery, or wirey frame, this needs to change. He’s the only other person on this list who can combine both command and stuff to the same degree as Kershaw and Felix, which is reflected in his stellar K% and BB%. Unmerited concerns about his fragility can be stopped, as he's averaged almost 7 innings per start.
5. David Price, Detroit Tigers (4)
ERA: 3.12 IP/S: 7.1 K% 24.7 BB%: 4.3
These next 6 pitchers are a toss up really. What separates Price from the pack is his ability to go deep into games, as he led all aces in innings per start. He’s reinvented himself as a Cliff Lee type lefty who pounds the zone. The only difference being Price’s fastball sits at 95 compared to Lee’s 90.
6. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (tie-6)
ERA: 3.18 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 28.4 BB%: 6.9
Aside from his K%, Scherzer’s numbers actually aren’t all too flattering. Due to his high K%, he throws a lot of pitches and doesn’t get past the 7th inning as often as one would life from their ace. He can be prone to the occasional disaster of a start, but at this point I'm just nitpicking. Scherzer was more than deserving of the 2013 Cy Young and is one of the best in the game.
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (tie-6)
ERA: 2.88 IP/S: 6.8 K%: 24.1 BB%: 6.6
Hamels quietly has put up one of the best 5 year runs in the MLB. His change-up is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, and with a world series ring he posses the championship pedigree one likes in an ace. Just kidding, because we all know postseason performance should not be weighed differently than regular season performance, right?
8. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (12)
ERA: 2.43 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 23.1 BB%: 6.7
Cueto’s ERA alone should put him higher than this, but his FIP is nearly a point higher at 3.37. This means he’s been the benefactor of some luck and is probably due for regression at some point. However, he could be the exception to this rule, as his deadly sinker leads to a lot of weak contact which FIP does not consider.
9. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (10)
ERA: 2.91 IP/S: 6.3 K%: 24.0 BB%: 5.6
Not to be overshadowed by that other Dodgers pitcher who is pretty good, Greinke is an ace in his own right. The only knock on him is his inability to go deep into games relative to the guys above him on this list.
10. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (8)
ERA: 3.32 IP/S: 6.7 K%: 22.7 BB%: 3.5
Unlike Greinke, Lee’s absurd walk rate allows him to go deep into ball games. His ERA is inflated thanks to his current season in which he hasn’t been healthy. Prior to this year, Lee has been a model of consistency, as he has never had an ERA higher that 3.22 or WAR lower than 4.8 since 2007.
11. Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (9)
ERA: 3.16 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 30.3 BB%: 9.1
In terms of raw stuff, Darvish might be the best in the game. However, due to his high walk and strikeout rates, he is prone to running his pitch count high. As a result, he’s only eclipsed 200 innings once in his 3 seasons. I’d like my ace to be a little more reliable than that.
12. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (16)
ERA: 3.37 IP/S: 6.1 K%: 28.2 BB%: 6.5
The knocks on Strasburg are similar to that of Darvish. However, Strasburg has better control, and his innings have been limited out of (over)caution rather than necessity. Despite being dead last in ERA of all ace candidates, he finished 8th in FIP, foreshadowing that he is due for better fortune in the future.
13. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (14)
ERA: 3.12 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 23.9 BB%: 6.3
Just 25 years old, Bumgarner has been overshadowed for most of his young career by a combination of a worn down Tim Lincecum, a Matt Cain who always outperformed his FIP, and even a Ryan Vogelsong outlier season. But don’t be fooled, Bumgarner has been the ace of this staff for some time now, and at 25 still has plenty of room to improve.
14. Jordan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals (11)
ERA: 3.09 IP/S: 6.2 K%: 20.5 BB%: 4.3
When compiling my CUM rankings, Zimmerman surprised me most at 11. Why is he so underrated? Perhaps its because he has been overshadowed by Strasburg, who entered the rotation at the same time. Regardless, Zimmerman has some of the most impressive numbers in baseball and is due a lot more recognition than he currently gets.
15. Jon Lester, Oakland Athletics (13)
ERA: 3.34 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 22.4 BB%: 6.6
Put up your hand if you thought Jordan Zimmerman and Madison Bumgarner were better pitchers than Lester before reading this. Well, turns out they are, and by a clear margin. Aside from Lester’s current season, his numbers aren’t all that ace-like, with an ERA of 4.82 as recently as 2 years ago. For all we know, this season could be an outlier, as it is a contract year and nothing in his history hints that 2014 Lester is the real Jon Lester. Let me stop you before counter with narrative of Lester being “clutch” in the playoffs, as I refute arbitrary endpoints and minuscule samples as a valid argument.
16. James Shields, Kansas City Royals (18)
ERA: 3.27 IP/S: 6.7 K%: 20.5 BB%: 5.8
Originally, Shields didn’t make the cut. However, I reexamined his numbers and one thing stood out: his ability to eat innings. His inning totals from the last 3 seasons are 249.1, 227.2, and 228.2, and this year ZiPS projects he will finish with, you guessed it, 228. One big thing I want out of my ace is consistency, and if James Shields isn’t consistent than I don’t know who is.
Just missed the cut:
Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers (15)
ERA: 3.31 IP/S: 6.1 K%: 22.2 BB%: 6.3
Doug Fister, Washington Nationals (17)
ERA: 2.96 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 17.2 BB%: 4.1
Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners (19)
ERA: 2.87 IP/S: 6.0 K%: 20.6 BB%: 4.2
Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds (20)
ERA: 3.12 IP/S: 6.6 K%: 18.8 BB%: 7.0
Jeff Samardzija, Oakland Athletics (21)
ERA: 3.52 IP/S: 6.5 K%: 22.8 BB%: 7.1
*2014 WAR was calculated using ZiPS projections
*Numbers accurate as of August 15th, 2014
*Numbers accurate as of August 15th, 2014