-Team performance is irrelevant. This is an individual award and a player should not be punished for being in a worse situation than a fellow competitor.
-This is not an “Offensive Player of the Year Award”. Defense and base running are huge parts of the game, and I will reward players accordingly.
-With that being said, this award is not limited to position players only. Pitchers will receive due consideration.
-Position matters. This is where a lot of “value” is derived. A catcher with a .400 OBP is far more valuable than a corner infielder with the same due to positional scarcity. Therefore the positions catcher, second base, shortstop, and center field get a bit of a boost. This is reflected in WAR, as it incorporates a positional adjustment into its formula.
-I am not evaluating solely on WAR. I will look at every statistic that I feel is significant. Spoiler alert: I don’t give a shit about RBIs or batting average.
-wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created): This is a catch all number that measures overall offensive output. It is adjusted for park and league factors. For example, Giancarlo Stanton gets a boost for hitting bombs in the cavernous Marlins Park and Troy Tulowitzki loses some points for hitting in Coors Field.
-This is not an “Offensive Player of the Year Award”. Defense and base running are huge parts of the game, and I will reward players accordingly.
-With that being said, this award is not limited to position players only. Pitchers will receive due consideration.
-Position matters. This is where a lot of “value” is derived. A catcher with a .400 OBP is far more valuable than a corner infielder with the same due to positional scarcity. Therefore the positions catcher, second base, shortstop, and center field get a bit of a boost. This is reflected in WAR, as it incorporates a positional adjustment into its formula.
-I am not evaluating solely on WAR. I will look at every statistic that I feel is significant. Spoiler alert: I don’t give a shit about RBIs or batting average.
-wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created): This is a catch all number that measures overall offensive output. It is adjusted for park and league factors. For example, Giancarlo Stanton gets a boost for hitting bombs in the cavernous Marlins Park and Troy Tulowitzki loses some points for hitting in Coors Field.
My Ballot:
1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
2. Jose Bautista, OF, TOR
3. Michael Brantley, OF, CLE
4. Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK
5. Jose Abreu, 1B, CWS
NOTE: Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez are actually my 2nd and 3rd place votes, but I’ve already written in detail about them in my AL Cy Young ballot. So I’m going to spread the analytical love around and omit them so I can include Donaldson and Abreu.
Mike Trout will win his first career MVP award despite deserving it the last 3 years. This is actually his worst full season in the big leagues by a steady margin, but since he finally fits the oh so important narrative of “Lead his team to the playoffs” and “Not going against a triple crown winner”, he’s a lock to win.
The next 4 spots could go many different directions depending on your methodology. If you are an offensive traditionalist, Victor Martinez and/or Miguel Cabrera are probably somewhere in this range. While they both had very solid campaigns, they were beat out by better all around players.
The case against Cabrera and Martinez are pretty simple. Cabrera was a slightly worse hitter than Bautista and Brantley while playing a less valuable position. Martinez is a Designated Hitter. As a DH, you have to marginally outperform your peers to make up for the lack of defensive value. DH’s can also add value by playing every day, yet Martinez only played in 151 games.
His offense numbers are elite; leading the league in wRC+ with 167. However, Abreu (166), Bautista (159), and Brantley (155) weren’t very far behind. The latter 2 get significant boosts for being everyday fielders, and Brantley gets an additional boost for being a great base runner with 7.8 Runs Above Average, good for 3rd in the league. Donaldson clearly wasn’t in the same offensive realm as the aforementioned players, but he’s no slouch himself, hitting 29 home runs and posting a 129 wRC+. What he lacks at the plate he more than makes up for with the glove, as he was the AL's 2nd best defender in terms of Defensive Runs Saved with 20. If this were an Offensive Player of the Year award, surely Martinez would get serious consideration. But unfortunately for him and Miggy, fielding and base running are crucial aspects of the game, and they simply cannot measure up to their peers when you add up all the pieces to the MVP puzzle.
1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
2. Jose Bautista, OF, TOR
3. Michael Brantley, OF, CLE
4. Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK
5. Jose Abreu, 1B, CWS
NOTE: Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez are actually my 2nd and 3rd place votes, but I’ve already written in detail about them in my AL Cy Young ballot. So I’m going to spread the analytical love around and omit them so I can include Donaldson and Abreu.
Mike Trout will win his first career MVP award despite deserving it the last 3 years. This is actually his worst full season in the big leagues by a steady margin, but since he finally fits the oh so important narrative of “Lead his team to the playoffs” and “Not going against a triple crown winner”, he’s a lock to win.
The next 4 spots could go many different directions depending on your methodology. If you are an offensive traditionalist, Victor Martinez and/or Miguel Cabrera are probably somewhere in this range. While they both had very solid campaigns, they were beat out by better all around players.
The case against Cabrera and Martinez are pretty simple. Cabrera was a slightly worse hitter than Bautista and Brantley while playing a less valuable position. Martinez is a Designated Hitter. As a DH, you have to marginally outperform your peers to make up for the lack of defensive value. DH’s can also add value by playing every day, yet Martinez only played in 151 games.
His offense numbers are elite; leading the league in wRC+ with 167. However, Abreu (166), Bautista (159), and Brantley (155) weren’t very far behind. The latter 2 get significant boosts for being everyday fielders, and Brantley gets an additional boost for being a great base runner with 7.8 Runs Above Average, good for 3rd in the league. Donaldson clearly wasn’t in the same offensive realm as the aforementioned players, but he’s no slouch himself, hitting 29 home runs and posting a 129 wRC+. What he lacks at the plate he more than makes up for with the glove, as he was the AL's 2nd best defender in terms of Defensive Runs Saved with 20. If this were an Offensive Player of the Year award, surely Martinez would get serious consideration. But unfortunately for him and Miggy, fielding and base running are crucial aspects of the game, and they simply cannot measure up to their peers when you add up all the pieces to the MVP puzzle.