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With two of the first 11 picks of this year's MLB draft, the Jays had the opportunity to replenish a depleted farm system with a couple of blue chip prospects. After failing to sign their 2012 and 2013 first round picks and trading away the farm for R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle, the Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos could not afford to whiff on their top selections.
With the 9th overall pick, they selected Jeff Hoffman, a RHP from East Carolina University who is one month removed from Tommy John surgery. Hoffman showcases a plus fastball, sitting mid 90s and occasionally touching 98, and a hammer of curveball that has been compared to that of St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright. Typically, Tommy John surgery has a negative stigma attached to it but fans need not be worried. A study conducted by the The American Journal of Sports Medicine found that UCL reconstruction allows for a predictable and successful return to the MLB. The surgery turned out to be a positive for the Jays, this allowed the Jays to get great value at this juncture of the draft, as Hoffman was a lock for the top 4 pre-Tommy John. Plus, with the rate of young power arms undergoing Tommy John, its probably a good thing that Hoffman got his out of the way early. Aside from acquiring a top tier talent at 9, the real value the Jays gained here was the leverage to sign Hoffman to a below slot bonus. Per Baseball America, the 9th pick is slotted a signing bonus of $3,080,800. The Jays have the leverage to negotiate a deal well below this figure, as Hoffman will be unable to reestablish his worth back in college as he will be out for all of next season. Per MLB rules, the Jays can only spend $9,458,500 on signing bonuses for all their draft picks. They will be able to spread their savings on the Hoffman deal amongst their later picks, possibly allowing them to persuade high school talents with signability issues by offering them an above slot deal.
Picking next at 11, they selected Max Pentecost, a catcher out of Kennesaw State University. Again, this was pretty good value as Pentecost had been mocked as high as 4th to the Cubs. He projects to have an average to above average hit tool in the majors with outstanding athleticism that will allow him to stay behind the dish, unlike many good hitting college catchers. He doesn’t have an extremely high ceiling and fans should temper their expectations, because we all know how J.P. Arencibia turned out. However, with the replacement level at the catcher position being low in the, if Pentecost can been solid behind the plate and anything but a liability with the bat he should be able to hold down the catcher spot for many years.
In the second round, the Jays took Sean Reid-Foley, a high school pitcher out of Florida with a lively fastball, sitting 91-94 with plenty of room to develop. Here is where the savings from the Hoffman pick will pay dividends. Many high school players turn down signing bonuses in favour of university scholarships (in Reid-Foley’s case, he is committed to Florida State), where they have the chance to boost their stock for when they re-enter the draft and enjoy the life as a Division 1 athlete. As a result, the Jays will probably have to overpay the slot value of $1,128,800 to persuade him away from FSU. This is where they will be able to use their savings on the Hoffman deal to sign a first round talent who slid to the second round because no other teams could pay him like the Jays can.
Although these picks look promising at the moment, in reality the MLB draft is a crapshoot. There are 40 rounds, and a team will be fortunate if 3 of those players make it to the big leagues and stays. That’s about a 8% success rate. Obviously, these odds are far higher in the early rounds, exponentially so, but the difficulty of nailing every draft pick at a high clip cannot be understated. Baseball is a game of statistics. It will be years before we can come to a verdict on these picks, but in the moment all an organization can do is draft the players with the best odds to succeed. Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos certainly did this with these selections.