Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane is one of the most creative and forward thinking executives in the game. However, this came into question after a series of trade deadline deals that led to an influx of doubt in his vision for the team. Not only did Billy sacrifice key prospects, which are even more valuable to a cash strapped team like Oakland on their team friendly contracts, but he also dealt away what was perceived as their greatest offensive threat.
When the A's began to slide in the standings, ultimately ceding first place to the Angels, the finger was pointed at Beane. Without Yoenis Cespedes' bat anchoring the lineup, runs were few and far between. How dare Beane trade away a middle of the order bat when it appeared the team was poised to win the division title? I believe the old saying goes, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".
The reality is it was pure randomness that the A's collective offensive slump and fall down the standings coincided with Cespedes' departure. As I mentioned in my trade deadline grades, Cespedes was a vastly overrated part of the lineup. At the time, the pitching staff was rolling, with guys like Jesse Chavez and Scott Kazmir in the midst of career seasons. So were Brandon Moss, Steven Vogt, and Derek Norris. So why did Billy Beane shake it up? Because he saw the A's success for what is was: too good to be true. It was inevitable that Chavez and Kazmir would regress, if not only due to fatigue. Moss' Home Run/Fly Ball ratio was due to come back to earth, and we all knew Steven Vogt and Derek Norris were playing over their heads. Of course, the regression hit, and it hit hard, resulting in the A's narrowly edging out Seattle for the second wild card spot. Who knows where they would be without Beane's moves.
Oh wait, we actually do know. With a little bit of addition, we can see objectively measure how much the trade improved the A's by looking at the net change in Wins Above Replacement (per FanGraphs). Here's the post-trade WAR for the players involved (plus Sam Fuld, who was acquired from Minnesota to be Gomes' platoon partner in left field to replace Cespedes' at bats).
Lester: 1.6 WAR
Fuld: 1.5 WAR
Gomes: -0.1 WAR
Cespedes: 1.3 WAR
All things being equal, Oakland gained 1.7 wins from the trade. Now with a little bit of subtraction, we can see just how important those wins were. Here are the final standings for the second wild card
Oakland Athletics: 88-74
Seattle Mariners: 87-75
Take away those wins and, at best, Oakland is playing game 163 tonight against King Felix or Hisashi Iwakuma. So yeah, without the trade its very likely the A's miss the playoffs, and Beane is being criticized for not being active enough at the deadline.
The fact that Oakland's slump randomly occurred shortly after the trade led many to the false assumption that Cespedes' absence was the direct cause. But we cannot forget one of the fundamental rules of statistics: correlation does not imply causation. Although I'm sure he didn't see it happening like this, credit Beane with having both the foresight and mammoth balls to assess his talent accurately, anticipate regression, and proactively improve the team when it appeared there was no pressing need. Because if he didn't, he'd be having another long ride home in his pick up truck contemplating whether he could make it work in Oakland.
When the A's began to slide in the standings, ultimately ceding first place to the Angels, the finger was pointed at Beane. Without Yoenis Cespedes' bat anchoring the lineup, runs were few and far between. How dare Beane trade away a middle of the order bat when it appeared the team was poised to win the division title? I believe the old saying goes, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".
The reality is it was pure randomness that the A's collective offensive slump and fall down the standings coincided with Cespedes' departure. As I mentioned in my trade deadline grades, Cespedes was a vastly overrated part of the lineup. At the time, the pitching staff was rolling, with guys like Jesse Chavez and Scott Kazmir in the midst of career seasons. So were Brandon Moss, Steven Vogt, and Derek Norris. So why did Billy Beane shake it up? Because he saw the A's success for what is was: too good to be true. It was inevitable that Chavez and Kazmir would regress, if not only due to fatigue. Moss' Home Run/Fly Ball ratio was due to come back to earth, and we all knew Steven Vogt and Derek Norris were playing over their heads. Of course, the regression hit, and it hit hard, resulting in the A's narrowly edging out Seattle for the second wild card spot. Who knows where they would be without Beane's moves.
Oh wait, we actually do know. With a little bit of addition, we can see objectively measure how much the trade improved the A's by looking at the net change in Wins Above Replacement (per FanGraphs). Here's the post-trade WAR for the players involved (plus Sam Fuld, who was acquired from Minnesota to be Gomes' platoon partner in left field to replace Cespedes' at bats).
Lester: 1.6 WAR
Fuld: 1.5 WAR
Gomes: -0.1 WAR
Cespedes: 1.3 WAR
All things being equal, Oakland gained 1.7 wins from the trade. Now with a little bit of subtraction, we can see just how important those wins were. Here are the final standings for the second wild card
Oakland Athletics: 88-74
Seattle Mariners: 87-75
Take away those wins and, at best, Oakland is playing game 163 tonight against King Felix or Hisashi Iwakuma. So yeah, without the trade its very likely the A's miss the playoffs, and Beane is being criticized for not being active enough at the deadline.
The fact that Oakland's slump randomly occurred shortly after the trade led many to the false assumption that Cespedes' absence was the direct cause. But we cannot forget one of the fundamental rules of statistics: correlation does not imply causation. Although I'm sure he didn't see it happening like this, credit Beane with having both the foresight and mammoth balls to assess his talent accurately, anticipate regression, and proactively improve the team when it appeared there was no pressing need. Because if he didn't, he'd be having another long ride home in his pick up truck contemplating whether he could make it work in Oakland.