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AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6
Baltimore Ravens: 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8
Cleveland Browns: 4-12
My thinking:
The Bengals bring back more or less the same squad as last year. Geno Atkins, one of the top defensive lineman in football, should be fully recovered from an ACL injury he suffered last October. His presence alone should improve upon a defense that was 5th in Defensive DVOA in 2013. Whether you're an Andy Dalton believer or not, you can't deny he has some of the best young weapons in the game. AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham should be steady as always and I'm expecting both RB Gio Bernard and TE Tyler Eifert to make "The Leap". Add in young receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu plus 2nd round pick RB Jeremy Hill and you the potential for a special offense. On the other hand, its possible Dalton crumbles under the pressure to live up to his 6 year, $115 million contract and this team misses the playoffs altogether.
As a Ravens homer, I had to resist the temptation to put them atop the division. However, they had one of the worst running games in NFL history last year and theres no reason to think it will be a whole lot better. A healthy Dennis Pitta and the addition of WR Steve Smith should make a huge difference in balancing out the offense though. This defense relies too much on youth for me to expect greatness, as rookie LB CJ Mosley will be expected to lead a defense with potentially many holes.
The Steelers are one of my favorite sleeper teams. Ben Roethlisberger seems to be forgotten as one of the games best. Look for him and young WR Markus Wheaton to have some huge plays this year. The defense is loaded with youth, including LB Jarvis Jones, LB Ryan Shazier, DE Cam Heyward, and DE Stephon Tuitt. If these guys can live up to expectations, they could be the cornerstones of another great Steelers D.
I feel bad for Johnny Manziel. If you thought the Browns sucked with Josh Gordon, who is a distant relative of Cheech and Chong, its even uglier now. Who is he going to throw to? The only worse situation for him would have been the Raiders. While the offense will be awful, there are some bright spots on D. LB Barkevious Mingo could be next in the line of Freak Linebackers in the NFL, and Joe Haden is quietly the NFL's second best corner. While it should be another dark, dark, season, the future is (kind of) bright for the Browns.
AFC East
New England Patriots: 14-2
Miami Dolphins: 8-8
New York Jets: 7-9
Buffalo Bills: 5-11
My Thinking:
The Patriots 14-2 record is entirely contingent on their health. They went 12-4 without Gronk and Wilfork for most of the season, plus Brady was throwing to an incompetent receiving core for the first several weeks. Add in the addition of Darrelle Revis, which for some reason isn't getting as much hype as it should, and you are basically adding 3 players who are in the top 3 at their respective positions. Young receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson should be much better, and I fully expect Brady to be in peak form this season. There's no way this team isn't better than last year.
This is the make or break year for QB Ryan Tannehill. If he comes through, they're pushing 10-6 and a wild card spot. If he crumbles, its 6-10. I'll split the difference, as I think mediocrity is the most likely outcome here.
I actually love what the Jets are building. They're starting to build a solid core of skill position players with WR Eric Decker, TE Jace Amaro, and RB Chris Johnson. Defensively, Muhammed Willkerson and Sheldon Richardson are monsters on the defensive line. CB Dee Milliner and S Calvin Pryor are nice young pieces. Ultimately, I think they are still a year of development and one more receiver away from being a playoff team. Put me in the minority, but I believe in Geno Smith. Heck, Mark Sanchez won playoff games with this team, why can't Geno?
I've already bought stock in Doug Marrone being the first head coach fired. I think internally they know the EJ Manuel pick was a disaster- why else would they pay Kyle Orton $11 million to back him up? CJ Spiller won last years "Most Frustrating Player to Own in Fantasy" award last year. Its mindbottling they can't get more out of him with his physical talent. Like Spiller, we will probably see Sammy Watkins go to waste in that system with that QB situation.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 10-6
Houston Texans: 8-8
Tennessee Titans: 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11
My Thinking:
I'll make this one short and sweet: The Colts win this division by default. Jacksonville and Tennessee are still at least a year away. I don't think Houston is winning 10 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. While the Colts are ok (13th in Offensive DVOA in 2013, 16 in Defensive DVOA), Andrew Luck is a stud and I cant see him losing more than 7 games.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 12-4
San Diego Chargers: 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9
Oakland: 3-13
My Thinking:
Lets get one thing straight: There is no way Denver's offense will still be as good as they were last year. Even if they kept all their pieces, they would face some sort of regression. Throw in the fact that Decker and Moreno are gone and Welker is out at least 4 weeks, maybe more depending on his concussion, and there are a few question marks. And you can't forget than Manning is 38 years old. Is it that inconceivable that Manning gets knicked up, can't throw more than 15 yards downfield, and the Broncos go 8-8? Not really. However, the additions of an aging DE DeMarcus Ware, S TJ Ward, and CB Aqib Talib are nice additions to the 15th ranked defense by DVOA in 2013. They should be good, but I don't think they will be quite the juggernaut we saw last year.
Fun Fact: San Diego finished 32nd, dead last, in Defensive DVOA yet still won a playoff game in Cincinnati and almost stole one in Denver. On the other side of the ball, they were 2nd in Offensive DVOA. Thats right, they were better than New Orleans, Philly, New England, and every other team without Peyton Manning. The defense should regress at least a little towards the mean, if not significantly improve. They showed in their two playoff games they were capable of being a very good unit. The offense should be very good again, although they should regress a little as well. Also, can we take a moment to give Philip Rivers the appreciation he's due. Here are his yardage totals and QB ratings since 2008:
2008: 4009, 105.5
2009: 4254, 104.4
2010: 4710, 101.1
2011: 4624, 88.7
2012: 3606, 88.6
2013: 4478, 105.5
Alright so lets scrap 2012 since clearly something was going on and its no longer an issue. Thats 6 straight years of MVP caliber play. Yet for some reason all people can remember his him short-arming INT after INT in 2012. The reality is that Rivers is a really, really good quarterback and San Diego will have a really, really good season.
Kansas City joins Carolina as the Official 2014 Regression teams. Just look at their offensive depth chart, its ugly. And you can't expect their defense and special teams to be as dominant as they were last year. So unless they give Jamaal Charles 500 carries, there is no way they will score enough to repeat last years record of 11-5 (which was aided by a very easy schedule).
And I'm not even going to bother writing anything about the Raiders.
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round:
(6) Ravens beat (3) Colts
(5) Chargers beat (4) Bengals
Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots beat (6) Ravens
(5) Chargers beat (2) Broncos
AFC Championship:
(1) Patriots beat (5) Chargers